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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2023-09-22T13:39Z
Model Inputs: 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=36.0, Speed=1026.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2023-09-22T05:54Z 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=4.0, Lat.=28.0, Speed=1508.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2023-09-22T09:29Z 2023-09-22T07:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=35.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=447.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2023-09-22T14:16Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-09-24T08:42Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -11.2 hr] Duration of disturbance (hr) = 27.1 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=3 (kp)135=5 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2023-09-24T05:44Z [PE: -13.1 hr] Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230922_055400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Note : Parker Solar Probe is not appearing on these simulation animations because the perihelion pass places it inside the simulation’s inner boundary. Because of this the Parker Solar Probe arrival time in this notification is an approximate estimate. The combined leading edge of the CMEs may arrive at Parker Solar Probe around 2023-09-22T11:30Z (+/- 7 hours) based on the current positioning of the spacecraft. The combined leading edge of these CMEs may also impact Bepi around 2023-09-23T10:00Z (+/- 7 hours) based on simulation results. The S-type CME with ID 2023-09-22T07:12:00-CME-001 is not predicted to impact any NASA Missions. Submitted on 2023-09-22T13:46Z by Mary Aronne A Notification with ID 20230922-AL-002 was sent on 2023-09-22T15:21Z A Notification with ID 20230923-AL-001 was sent on 2023-09-23T12:47Z |
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